Ahead of Leeds away, we rate Leicester City’s chances of promotion
Defeat to Middlesbrough put a few jitters among the Leicester City fanbase. With tonight’s trip to Elland Road taking on even greater significance, how’s the mood?
An optimist writes…
Becky Taylor
As a big Leicester City pessimist, (who was certain of a poor managerial appointment and subsequent 2nd relegation) I do almost understand the meltdown after losing against Middlesbrough. It just brings in that nervousness that we all know too well as a Leicester fan.
But I found myself being the voice of reason in the post-match debrief. We have to look at things logically. We've lost 5 games in the league all season. To suddenly lose another 4 in the final 13, although possible, is not probable.
That also involves 2 of the chasing 3 teams having a pretty much perfect record for the run-in, which we know is very unlikely too. Add to that our far superior goal difference and we're still sitting comfortably in the driving seat.
Leeds, Southampton and Ipswich have been brilliant, it has to be said, so I think it may get closer but the games are running out for them. Our big game record is a massive red flag but even to lose the final 'big games' and win the majority of the other games, that would do us in terms of promotion.
If any team was going to fuck up this situation we find ourselves in, it's Leicester City. This time, however, it's not happening!
What the stats say
Matt Jedruch
I'm 95% there.
I have slipped into fixture delving and result forecasting, and the deeper I dig, the more I convince myself that we will wrap up promotion at some point in late March or early April.
If we very conservatively predict that we pick up 21 points from the final 13 games (1.62 pts per game versus our current rate of 2.36) - that could be 6 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats - it would leave us on 99 points.
Leeds and/or Ipswich would need to pick up 31 points from 13 games to shift us from the top spot, while Southampton would need 33. Ipswich v Southampton and Leeds v Southampton are yet to be played. Points will be dropped.
It would take an almighty collapse from us and, at a minimum, two unbelievable surges in form from our three automatic promotion rivals to take us out of the top two.
Even the recent blip against 'Boro, tough game at Elland Road on Friday and tricky upcoming fixture run won't convince me otherwise.
Furlongs in front
Iain Wright
My heart says we're going to do it. I'd like a positive result at Leeds on Friday to banish a few 'big game blues' and help convince my head though.
It's never easy to rate Leicester's chances. My dear late grandmother, who was a season ticket holder for most of her adult life, always used to say “never put Leicester on the Pools, they never do what you expect!”
She very sadly passed away a month before we did the ultimate in unexpected back in 2016, but I think her point is as pertinent now as it ever was. Even in this record-breaking season, it'd surprise no-one in Leicester blue if we won every game from here on in, or indeed if we turned into a footballing version of Devon Loch in the 1956 Grand National and tripped up with the finishing line in sight!
What I'm hoping is that Enzo feels we're a long way from the finishing line; not even at Canal Turn, if you will. There are four thoroughbreds in this race and what it's going to take to win is going to be far more than has ever been needed before. We can't allow any complacent thoughts of being a few lengths clear enter our mind. We have to focus on clearing the remaining hurdles and keep our existing pace right up until we romp past the post.
70/30 (no, really)
David Bevan
I’ve always thought people look at points gaps in the wrong way. You’ll see a question about whether Southampton, for example, are really going to make up an 11-point deficit over 13 games.
Were Manchester United really going to make up 12 points in 12 games in 2020? Were Liverpool really going to make up 10 points in 10 games in 2021?
Of course there are lots of differences here, but I’m not going to be sucked into thinking points gaps at certain stages mean anything until it’s all sorted one way or the other.
It’s less about momentum in the Championship than the Premier League, because there are far fewer daunting games and some which we’ll win just by turning up. There are still tricky games left though and strange things can happen to a team’s confidence and the nerves of a fanbase with a couple of defeats towards the end of the season.
Win tonight and I’m convinced. Lose and I’m into 60/40 territory.
