Nervous at 90%: Leicester City pessimists vs the Opta Supercomputer
There’s one question I always like to ask other Leicester City fans I meet. (Don’t worry, I don’t live in Leicester so I’m not roaming around the Clock Tower vox-popping shoppers. This is an occasional thing).
The question is: when did you first think we were going to win the Premier League?
Not when you first thought it might be a possibility, but when you were confident it was going to happen.
Their answer says a lot about how optimistic or pessimistic they are about the club’s fortunes, and what they’ll be going through over the next few weeks as Leicester try to return to the league we won eight years ago.
For me, it was the final whistle in Tottenham’s home game against West Bromwich Albion, when it was confirmed that Craig Dawson’s equaliser meant Spurs had dropped two points and we needed just one win from our final three games to achieve the unthinkable.
If Dawson hadn’t made amends for his earlier own goal by levelling things up at White Hart Lane that night, the gap would have been five points with three to play, and I’d have remained nervous.
As it turned out, of course, the gap was extended and this was one horse that didn’t finish in the top two.
The boffins believe
A five-point gap with three games to go is one thing, but a four-point gap with nine games to go is something different altogether. So I was interested last week to see the Opta Supercomputer’s prediction gave Leicester City a 90% chance of finishing in the top two.
Whether your “it’s happening” moment came, as it did for me, on 25th April, or much earlier (some people I ask say it was the Manchester City away game in February), dictates how you processed that 90% figure. I was 70/30 two defeats ago…
Now, it’s more like 50/50, and the added pressure built from the financial scenario laid out over the past week hasn’t helped.
There’s always an assumption from some that teams can’t suddenly drop off from a certain points-per-game ratio to bomb for the run-in, as though your form over the first three-quarters of a season is guaranteed to be maintained for the remainder.
Far from being the result of being biased, this often comes from not being emotionally invested. “Leicester are already promoted,” the pundits and neutrals said in January. But there’s no comeback if you’re wrong in that scenario. Just another team to have a big laugh about, another club to receive the dreaded bottlers tag.
The supercomputer (presumably a gigantic 1970s-style metal box operated by someone who is legally obliged to be known as a “boffin” and who must wear glasses at all times) put our chances of winning the title at 68.5% prior to the trip to Hull. For a lot of Leicester fans, that’s still a big deal. They’ll be upset if we don’t finish as champions, given this season looked like being a record-breaking one for so long.
There’s a slight chance it still might be. I couldn’t care less now. We just need to haul ourselves over the line, whether that’s the dotted line between first and second or the dashed one between second and third. It doesn’t matter.
Burnley’s status as reigning champions is doing them no good now and neither is Plymouth’s as winners of League One last year. Luton and Ipswich, on the other hand…
To trust or not to trust
The most worrying thing for me is not looking at the fixture list and seeing Bristol City (beat Southampton at home recently) and Norwich (two defeats in eleven) on the horizon. It’s the fact I thought we’d beat Middlesbrough and I thought we’d beat QPR. If even a pessimist’s optimism is dashed, there aren’t many other places to go.
I’m not blind to the alternative, though. Those people who thought we sewed up the Premier League title at the Etihad will be looking at the fixture list and seeing Bristol City (four defeats in a row) and Norwich (two points from their last four away games). We’ve already beaten all nine of our remaining opponents this season.
If that leaves your head in a spin, it’s probably best to concentrate on whether you trust this Leicester City side. Not this Leicester City Football Club, but these players and this manager, specifically. Again, a lot of people will. Enzo Maresca may be inexperienced as a manager but he’s seen, and contributed to, success on an unprecedented scale for Manchester City when the pressure was on.
We know the list of experienced leaders at the club. Conor Coady, Jannik Vestergaard, Harry Winks and Jamie Vardy have all either got a wealth of experience, played in huge games or won titles. We also know Wilfred Ndidi’s importance to the side and how much better we look with Ricardo Pereira in the XI. If both are fit for the run-in, it will be tremendously reassuring.
What wasn’t reassuring was the way we struggled to create chances against QPR, the puzzling incompetence in possession for the majority of the Sunderland game last Tuesday and the increasing signs of fatigue that appeared at Hull.
The control that’s so key to the success of this side has slipped in recent weeks.
Part of the concern also comes from knowing what it feels like to throw things away. It would involve some horrible moments between now and the end of the season, a sense of lurking discomfort for many weeks and months to follow. Unless we win the play-offs, of course.
But we have stemmed the tide of defeats and we’re still top of the league. Even pessimists can see how good this team can be, and we’re desperate to see them show it again. This break from league action is a welcome one.
The best thing about this run-in is that at least it’s football. What lies beyond these final nine games is currently a deep, dark void. We don’t know what will need to be decided and by whom off the pitch so, as frustrating as that is, we need to put it to one side. As fans, we’re in this for what happens within these 90-minute periods of agony. Let’s enjoy it… (yeah, right).
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