Can Leicester City still rely on Jamie Vardy for goals?

 

Leicester City have had so many problems this season it’s hard to know where to start, but goalscoring is a relatively recent one. In the past we’ve been able to count on Jamie Vardy as a reliable source of goals. That doesn’t seem to be the case any more.

Clearly the balance of the team was wrong earlier in the season but Leicester were finding the net - scoring at least twice in five of the first eight games.

Since the World Cup, goals have dried up with just Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s early opener at Anfield to show for the past three league games.

While we’ll be focusing on Vardy’s league performance here, it was notable that he failed to hit the net with any of his three shots from good positions at Gillingham on Saturday. So much of Leicester’s success in recent years has come down to Vardy feeding off scraps and gobbling up goals.

The word ‘finished’ has begun to be bandied about. He deserves better than that kind of talk - this is Leicester City’s greatest ever finisher - but retirement comes to us all. So looking at the stats, how is the self-styled GOAT faring this season?

Vardy: Premier League minutes played

What stands out here is that Vardy is on course to play a very similar number of minutes to last season.

While it may feel as though Patson Daka has now overtaken Vardy as the number one striker in the thoughts of Brendan Rodgers and both players have started 9 league games, Vardy has registered 962 league minutes to Daka’s 701.

He’s always thrived on making the most of his chances. As Daka continues to adapt to the Premier League and injuries and poor form hit Leicester’s main attacking threats, it’s arguably more important than ever that Vardy gets back to somewhere near his best.

Vardy: Goals and expected goals per 90

Although Vardy is on course to play the same number of minutes as last season, a tap-in at Molineux remains his only Premier League goal in 2022/23.

As a player who has performed as expected or better in front of goal in four of the five previous seasons, he should have two or three more strikes to his name based on the quality of his chances.

Vardy: Assists and expected assists per 90

One aspect that stands out massively when looking at Vardy’s statistics this season is his assists - he’s level with James Maddison on 4, with only 10 players in the league racking up more so far this season.

If you didn’t drop down into the detail you might think this overperformance marks a shift from goalscorer to creator. Sadly, it’s more a reflection of Leicester’s massive reliance on moments of individual brilliance.

Look at those assists:

  • a lay-off to Dewsbury-Hall for his long-range effort on the opening day against Brentford

  • a one-two with Harvey Barnes at Chelsea

  • a touch inside for Barnes’s curler at home to Nottingham Forest

  • a touch to set up Maddison for a solo goal at Molineux

With Barnes off form amid injuries to Maddison and Dewsbury-Hall, there are very few candidates to provide those moments of brilliance. Meanwhile, Vardy has looked isolated.

Vardy: Passes completed and attempted per 90

Leicester’s struggles as a team are certainly affecting Vardy. It’s a well-worn cliche, and with good reason, that Vardy has never had many touches in a game.

Nonetheless, he is attempting fewer passes this season and far fewer of them are finding their target.

Vardy: Shots and shots on target per 90

The numbers here are stark. This season, Vardy has attempted an average of 1.4 shots per 90 minutes - down from 2.69 last season.

The percentage of his shots that are finding the target remains high at 46.7% - that’s the highest it’s been since 2016/17.

It may feel difficult to read too much into that as the low number of shots he’s taking (15 so far this season) make it such a small sample size.

However, last season he scored 15 goals - 60% of his 25 shots on target.

This season it’s 1 from 7 - falling to 14%.

It’s clear Vardy is by no means the main problem and he needs more from his team-mates and manager. There are also some worrying trends that show Leicester might not be able to rely on him quite so much any more.

Now… time to sit back and enjoy Jamie Vardy proving everyone wrong yet again?


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