The Fosse Way’s Hazzetta season preview - 5: Manchester City to Notts Forest
Part five of Harry Gregory’s season preview is a foray up north to Manchester, the north east and some place near Loughborough.
Part 1: Arsenal to Aston Villa
Part 2: Bournemouth to Brentford
Part 3: Brighton to Everton
Part 4: Fulham to Liverpool
A quick reminder that each club is judged based on its away day experience as a visiting fan, the potential for a meltdown from the stands, likelihood of a points deduction, and the player most likely to score against the Foxes.
We’ve also got access to a secret algorithm to predict their expected relegation chance (xR) and finishing position.
Manchester City
Last season: 1st
Fixtures v Leicester: Home - 29th December / Away – 2nd April
At what point do Pep Guardiola’s Citizens begin to take the omnipresent shape of Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United? Will their dominance eventually become joyless?
That’s been helped by the opposition pretenders have not been likeable. Their Darth Vader, Rodri, continues to be in situ as the most important player in the division. How will the 115 charges affect them? We suspect not a lot this season but will shape their future.
Away day scope
As a self-confessed fan of Manchester, an away day is always enjoyed here. Manchester City is near the Northern Quarter of the city which contains superb, traditional public houses such as the Marble Arch and the Crown & Kettle.
It’s also not much of a stroll either from the excellent National Football Museum. However, aligned either side of the away end are some utter ghouls baiting away support.
Opposition meltdown?
Supporters were vocal in March about season ticket prices rises to the point that banners were shown at the Etihad. There were calls to boycott the Community Shield as a repeat of last year; a fan group who focus on food banks persuaded fellow supporters to instead use money from that event towards the charity.
Points deduction
It’s incredibly difficult to try and understand what punishment would be considered if Manchester City were charged over their alleged errors.
A verdict is likely by February 2025 which gives scope for an appeal if required. The power of the independent panel will be called into question no doubt.
Likely opposition goalscorer
Rodri has made his comments towards us in the past and Jack Grealish was rather annoying while at Villa. But really, take your pick.
xR
Nil. The Super Computer crashed everytime we tried to put the equation into the mainframe. Equally it was rather swift to tell us 78% chance of being champions again.
Manchester United
Last season: 8th
Fixtures v Leicester: Home - 15th March / Away - 9th November
A club which gives LCFC a run in the stakes as the most dysfunctional in the division. The great brain of INEOS, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, was/is going to use his business knowledge to turn Manchester United around.
After all he’s such a clever bloke, he spent six weeks trying to get an alternative manager and failed to persuade anyone. Erik Ten Hag won the FA Cup and extended his contract. Ratcliffe is so clever… yet still irrational like any other football fan.
Away day scope
Slim pickings around Old Trafford. Once drank in a pub called the Quadrant which stocked beers I had not seen at the time and still haven’t now. You could change up from the City away day and rather focus on such traditional classes as Peak of Peverill or Briton’s Protection nearby Deansgate. Therefore a tram ride away from Old Trafford.
It’s near those pubs where the former Hacienda Nightclub was located. Now it’s a sign on a 2000s-built apartment block. The People’s History Museum once hosted an excellent Madchester exhibition and the topics of collections there are quite simply a treat.
Opposition meltdown?
Old Trafford is falling down. Ratcliffe has about as much charm as the Glazers. The MUST have been one of the more vocal groups in their condemnation of modern football’s woes.
They won against MUFC recently; the club wanted to insist on attendance at 17 league games of your season ticket or give up the option to renew. They managed to get this down to 15.
I’d suspect there is going to be some deserved noise about Ratcliffe’s views and lack of plans on the female team as well.
Points deduction
Much has been said about their use of the £40 million COVID allowance but it’s not punishable under PSR. They will be fine.
Likely opposition goalscorer
Marcus Rashford. He’s in very poor form. He’s had to press the ‘reset button’ and Leicester City getting promoted is exactly the tonic he needs.
xR
Very minimal. Interestingly the super computer has them in their Champions League places (57% chance) and a further 28% chance of European qualification.
Newcastle United
Last season: 7th
Fixtures v Leicester: Home - 5th April / Away - 14th December
A check in expectations occurred last season as the difficulties of juggling Europe and domestic football proved too much for the Toon. On the final day of 23/24, Newcastle supporters thought they were off to Conference League football but Manchester United’s FA Cup victory halted that.
They might be better for it and a 7th finish wasn’t too shabby really. Alongside the obvious FFP issues, Eddie Howe has encouraged a process of three to four quality additions every summer. No one of note has arrived yet but their chase of Marc Guehi appears to be very keen.
Away day scope
Quite simply you won’t find a better located stadium. Stand at the Grey Monument at the centre of the city, then you’ll spot St James Park. Some great pubs from the Georgian era and if you are willing to make a long walk to Ouseburn, the Free Trade Inn is not only an excellent pub but gives you a cracking view of the River Tyne (and its bridge).
Within thirty minutes of a tram ride, you can be at Tynemouth, a pretty town possessing some of the most stunning coastline you could imagine. We’ve twice stayed for a Newcastle weekender and this is often our base.
Opposition meltdown?
Interestingly, Newcastle’s supporters trust is one of the largest and most transparent of them all, boosted by numbers from the Mike Ashley ownership.
After the initial giddy period with the Saudi owners, there are now cracks and the club are seeking to cash in on recent success. Rising ticket prices and a ballot scheme is proving controversial.
Points deduction
Despite the Champions League revenue, it appeared in June that there was a chance they may get caught foul.
However, the bizarre player swap with Nottingham Forest appears to have allayed those fears. The lack of incomings in general suggest that the tap of transfers is being used far more critically.
Likely opposition goalscorer
Harvey Barnes – much maligned at Leicester. Largely as miracles were expected of him. He became the ‘give the ball to him’ option and couldn’t provide every single time he tried to take his opposite number on. His form for the Magpies towards the end of the season suggested he will get goals in the Premier League.
xR
Unlikely. Too much quality in the attacking areas to really get concerned but you would question if their defence is in need of a freshen-up soon.
Super computer predicts: 7% chance of the Champions League and 14% chance of European qualification.
Notts Forest
Last season: 17th
Fixtures v Leicester: Home - 25th October / Away - 10th May
They are still here. Loitering in the top flight. Waffling on about the good old days. Underlined by a paranoid belief that the VAR authorities are out to banish Nottingham Forest back to the lower league.
Worryingly, they have finally settled upon a defence which doesn’t contain Joe Worrall and have a foundation that Nuno thrives off. The capture of Jota Silva from Guimaraes is an exciting addition. The question is: can we drag them down with us ?
Away day scope
Nottingham can be a decent day on the booze with a variety of old-fashioned pubs and the nearby Sneinton Market containing the well named, Fox and Grapes. However, it’s very likely given incidents before and during the recent cup tie that Nottingham will be as good as a no-go zone, except for the Notts County Supporters Club Bar, for the foreseeable.
Therefore, we could recommend a stroll around West Bridgford to take in some of the extraordinary-sized homes where most of our squad live and you can work out exactly why we are in the mess we are in.
Opposition meltdown?
All hail the Greek God. Evangelos Marinakis got everything right until now. Not the first time Forest have been fooled by a flash new owner.
He’s not so popular now after season ticket prices were shockingly put up an average increase of 24%. This announced while their Premier League status wasn’t yet secure. The club claimed there was an 11,000 waiting list for season tickets which gives them the leverage.
Points deduction
Some FFP swap-shop tactics suggests not. They have sold three players for a combined £68 million. If they aren’t complying now, you’d struggle to know when they will. There’s a chance.
Likely opposition goalscorer
Chris Woods – the former England goalkeeper has developed a particular chip on his shoulder during his visits back to Leicester and enjoyed winding up our supporters.
xR
I’d argue the most likely of the non-promoted clubs to fall. Their defence has improved and they have potent attackers but there is still this unease and a feeling that if last season’s promoted crop were strong they would have been relegated.
The super computer aligns with our assessment; 50% chance of relegation but they aren’t in the bottom three.
