The run-in: Predicting the unpredictable with Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton fans
With 25 days until game 46 of the season, Jamie Thorpe spoke to fans of Ipswich Town, Leeds United and Southampton to see how they see the final few games going.
One thing is for sure in this most ridiculous of Championship seasons: whichever teams eventually go up in the coveted auto spots certainly deserves it.
This has been the most competitive title race in recent history, with more goals, more shots and more drama than any Championship season I can remember - which, for the “most bonkers league in the world”, is really saying something.
Take the utter carnage of Easter Monday. Late goals galore as both Ipswich and Leeds salvaged results following Leicester’s scare against Norwich, as each of the current top three continued their relentless pace. As has been clear for a while, it looks likely that the record for the highest-ever third-placed points tally will be smashed, the 90 points set by Sunderland back in 1998 looking more than achievable.
Southampton have stuttered but are not out of it by any means. We all know how quickly things can change in this division.
This unpredictability is something that is causing me a fair bit of unease. For a vast majority of the season we have looked cool, calm, composed even as we march towards an instant return to the promised land. But March turned the situation on its head and while confident, I am by no means certain of the outcome that this crazy season holds.
So how is the mood in the camp of our opposition? Are they confident? Do they see the Foxes faltering? I spoke to a representative of each side to get their thoughts:
What are your predicted points from the remaining games?
David (Ipswich)
10 or 12 (97 or 99 points), but no reason why we can’t get 15.
JD (Leeds)
13 (99 points) confident of 4 wins and 1 draw.
Martin (Southampton)
Another 7 tops.
Your predicted table
David (Ipswich)
Leeds 101 points, Ipswich 99 points, Leicester 98 points, Southampton 96 points.
Leeds have the easiest run-in so finish top. Ipswich despite the loss have the right attitude, coaching and the setup of the club is just there. Mentality monsters.
Leicester, I think they win the next 2 but after that have a tough run of games and thanks to the way they are playing will come unstuck.
Southampton have left themselves too much to do, even though I think they are a better side than Leicester.
JD (Leeds)
Leeds and Leicester top 2, toss of a coin which way really. Ipswich 3rd, Southampton 4th.
Only reason I’m dropping Ipswich out is because if they do enough to be in the top two come the end of the season, then their record since mid-January will be truly remarkable. So a case of “they couldn’t, could they?”
Martin (Southampton)
Leicester, Leeds, Ipswich, Saints.
I think Leeds as a runner up, largely because Ipswich have some really tough games. The two away matches at Hull and Coventry could be difficult for them and absolutely crucial.
Key players in the run in for you?
David (Ipswich)
Kieffer Moore, Omari Hutchinson, Leif Davis and Sam Morsy.
Moore is our only fit senior striker and allows us to play over the press when teams go man for man. Scores goals, wins flick ons for runners. Huge signing - in lots of ways!
Hutchinson offers the X Factor. Not as direct as Burns, but can play across the attacking 3 behind Moore, can go either way, offers a threat in build-up and in the counter and is hitting numbers and form at just the right time.
Davis - what more do I need to say? Set piece and assist king, also our only left-back. But what a left-back to have!
Morsy - player of the season. How he keeps us calm, ticking and carries the ball through tight spaces, breaks the play up and a good passing range, he's like having McKenna's brain on the pitch whilst being a top player alongside it.
JD (Leeds)
The obvious ones really, Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter.
Away from them, the partnership between Ethan Ampadu and Joe Rodon is absolutely key.
Martin (Southampton)
Flynn Downes has been outstanding in the midfield, as has fellow loanee Taylor Harwood-Bellis.
Kyle Walker-Peters on his day is the best right-back in the division and Adam Armstrong is an important player.
Which team among your remaining fixtures are you most worried by?
David (Ipswich)
Honestly? No one.
It’s still in our hands and while it won’t be easy, I trust us to be professional and see it through – if we don’t make top 2, it is our fault.
JD (Leeds)
The two away games – Boro are scrapping for the play-offs and even QPR away given they will be fighting for their lives.
Southampton at home last game of the season is far from ideal and could be absolutely crucial.
Martin (Southampton)
Pretty much every team in the top 6.
What are your thoughts on Leicester - where will we finish and why?
David (Ipswich)
As before I think Leicester finish 3rd, just due to the run-in and the pressure they will be under from us and Leeds. I think Saints beat you in a few weeks and that opens the door for us and Leeds to go up.
JD (Leeds)
Assuming no points deduction (who knows what the EFL are cooking up), you could well win all remaining games if you can replicate your performances from the early part of the season.
But, that being said, there is still massive pressure. You have blown a 17-point lead and if there is a further slip up, Leeds and Ipswich will be right there to take advantage.
Martin (Southampton)
I think Leicester win the league but must beat Southampton in order to do so. They have had their blip, but had that cushion with the game in hand and to recover in the last two was crucial.
Thanks to David (@davidhooley_), Martin Sanders (@footballmartin_) and my Leeds supporting confidant who chose to remain anonymous – probably wise.
